Philip Klapwijk is Managing Director of Precious Metals Insights Limited
Philip Klapwijk of PMI Precious Metals Insights Ltd is an analyst of and commentator on the gold, silver, platinum & palladium markets, production, consumption, recycling and mining. He is a frequent speaker at conferences on precious metals and commodities Email: email@example.com
May 16, 2016 - Reuters with Philip
Klapwijk "China goes cold on platinum jewellery, crimping world demand"
By Jan Harvey
"It's not as if
consumers aren't spending money, but they're not spending it on jewellery in
the way they used to," said Philip Klapwijk, director of Hong Kong-based
Precious Metals Insights.
discretionary purchasing power is being spent on other things -- white goods,
and certainly tourism. More Chinese tourists are going abroad, and that also
means during important public holidays, fewer people are visiting department
Is gold headed for a correction? Top consultancies
offer up mixed price outlooks for 2016 - March 31, 2016 4:04 PM ET - Peter
“Clearly, the Fed talk of four interest rate rises
this year has been dialed back quite significantly,” Philip Klapwijk,
consultant to Metals Focus, said at a breakfast presentation in Toronto.
Klapwijk also noted investors have been very active gold buyers so far in 2016,
with ETF holdings rising by a whopping 300 tonnes. As U.S. inflation ticks up,
he said institutional investors have concluded gold “is a good thing to stock
Philip Klapwijk spoke at the presentation of English Language
Edition of the Metals Focus annual Gold Focus 2016 launch in Toronto
Canada. Metals Focus launch the Gold Focus every March. This annual
‘glossy’ publication is fast becoming the number one reference source
for the global gold market. The Gold Focus provides an in-depth analysis
of market developments, including historical data and statistics on
gold mine production, costs and consumption (featuring a
country-by-country analysis). The Gold Focus also includes a full
supply/demand and price outlook for 2016.
Philip Klapwijk - Precious Metals Insights, Hong Kong - LBMA Forecast for 2016.
$958 - $1,147
The gold price will fall further this year due to tighter monetary
policy in the US, a further rise in the dollar and unsupportive
supply/demand fundamentals. While it is true that the Federal Reserve
will be cautious in raising rates, it would appear that the market is
now too sanguine regarding the number of increases likely in
calendar 2016 (just two on average compared to the Fed’s latest
consensus view of four). Higher US interest rates will favour the
dollar, which will also benefit from secular weakness in the euro and
most EM currencies, including the renminbi. Furthermore, in terms of
gold’s supply/demand fundamentals, the outlook is not
price-supportive. The market is likely to remain well supplied, with
mine production holding up due to new projects still coming on stream
and cost reductions at existing operations, while scope for further
reductions in scrap supply are limited. Jewellery demand is set to
recover this year but only to a limited extent, in no small measure
due to only modest consumption gains forecast for India and China.
Critically, the price ‘floor’ supported by Asian physical demand in
the form of jewellery and small bars is again set to move lower. At
the same time, very limited institutional investor gold demand and,
perhaps also, reduced net central bank purchases of bullion will
require yet lower dollar gold prices for the market to clear.
$772 - $948
Platinum prices are unlikely to recover materially unless either gold
returns to a bull-market (unlikely before 2017) or mine production is
cut substantially (much talk but little action) or diesel cars
recover their appeal (a hard sell to both European consumers and
governments). Rand devaluation and the (much larger) slump in oil
prices have given the South African producers some breathing space.
In addition, local political factors are an obstacle to any rapid,
large-scale cuts to uneconomic operations. Talk of the ‘death of
diesel’ is overblown, but diesel’s share of the European market is
expected to slide due to greater concern over particulate emissions
and a shift away from diesel towards fuel-efficient petrol engines. In
the meantime, in spite of lower prices, global platinum jewellery
demand is expected to remain becalmed due to relatively little scope
for growth this year in the dominant Chinese market. Overall, the
platinum market is likely therefore to be in rough ‘balance’ this
year in terms of supply and fabrication demand. This might be
considered a condition favouring some upside for the price if it were
not for the likely slide in gold prices and the fact that investors
are expected to remain negative towards platinum during 2016. Ag
$11.96 - $14.89
A further slide in prices is expected in 2016, with silver tending
(as is typically the case) to ‘outperform’ gold to the downside.
Besides facing similar economic and financial headwinds this year
(particularly the stronger US dollar and soft commodity prices), the
white metal will additionally have to contend with lacklustre
industrial demand (in part due to the slowdown in Chinese capital
investment and construction) and relatively ‘sticky’ supply from mine
production and recycling. In addition, it is debatable whether the
underlying level of physical demand from India, investors in bullion
products and ETF holders will be as supportive this year as these were
in 2015. More likely, lower silver prices will be required to
stimulate a continued high level of Indian imports and bullion coin
sales, particularly in light of the huge demand seen from both sources
last year. Against this, it is probable that outflows from silver
ETFs will increase as silver makes new lows for the bear market to
$442 - $605
From a low starting point, palladium is expected to outperform its
peers among the major precious metals. Currently, the price is
discounting a more negative outcome for the global economy and auto
demand than would seem justified, in large part due to bad news from
China. Specifically regarding China, while car sales growth has
slowed (to 7% last year), the base is much higher (21.1m vehicles).
Moreover, combating pollution is a priority and emission controls are
becoming tighter. US auto sales also reached a record level last
year (17.5m units) and the consensus is that in 2016 there should be a
further (albeit smaller) increase in sales. Indeed, global
autocatalyst demand is forecast to increase in 2016 and underpin an
increase in overall palladium fabrication demand. This will only
partly be offset by a small rise in supply (due to higher recycling)
such that palladium will remain in a substantial fundamental
‘deficit’. In the short run, this can be swamped by investor selling
(as seen recently), but as such investors’ sales ease some rebound in
palladium prices is probable basis ‘stronger hands’ holding remaining
bullion stocks and the metal’s healthy supply/demand fundamentals.
China Gold & Precious Metals Summit is an annual precious metals
gathering jointly endorsed by the China Gold Association and the
Shanghai Gold Exchange for miners, refiners, fabricators, dealers,
bankers, traders, money managers, analysts, brokers, jewelers, advisors,
policy setters to discuss prices, fundamentals, investor sentiment,
macroeconomic environment as well as the growth and development of
China's gold & precious metals market. In 2015 with China's Silk
Road initiative announced and the launch of Shanghai gold benchmark
approaching, their implications for the global bullion market coupled
with insights on price actions, Fed policy and supply/demand picture etc
were highlighted at the conference.
Gold To Trade ‘Well Below’ $1,100, But Not Under $1,000 - LBMA’s Top Forecaster
Oct 20, 2015 Guest(s): Philip Klapwijk
toward metals, particularly gold, seems to be bearish these days and an
LBMA six-time forecasting winner says he expects the price to trend
lower in 2016. Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Hong Kong-based
consultancy Precious Metals Insights, said he expects gold prices to
trend ‘well below $1,100’ an ounce. ‘I think gold at the moment is
looking very ‘toppy,’’ he told Kitco News at the London Bullion Market
Association (LBMA) conference in Vienna, Austria. However, despite the
somewhat bearish call, he said he doesn’t expect the metal to trade at
sub-$1,000 levels for too long. ‘That does not mean we can’t get a spike
below but I don’t think we’re going to trade for any extensive period
below that level,’ he noted. In 2014, the LBMA awarded Klapwijk with the
top forecasting title for platinum, which he said should continue to
suffer post the Volkswagen scandal. ‘The reason for that is the very
high market share of diesel in Europe and the damage, I think, will be
done somewhat permanently to diesel’s image in Europe,’ he explained.
Comex December gold futures were last quoted $4.50 higher at $1,177.30
an ounce, while Nymex January platinum futures rose $7.80 to $1,022.40.
Kitco News, October 20, 2015
Philip Klapwijk, Managing Director of Precious Metals Insights will be panel member in
the session "Evolution of the Precious Metals Market" at the
LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference 2015 Date: Sunday, October 18, 2015 to Tuesday, October 20, 2015 Venue:Hilton Vienna, Vienna.
08 April 2015 - Platinum Guild International PGI's Platinum Retail Barometer.
Comments by Philip Klapwijk of PMI on China platinum jewelry. Philip
Klapwijk from Precious Metal Insights, who supervised the China
Barometer, commented: “Plain platinum jewellery is facing headwinds
these days in the Chinese market. In contrast, bridal continues to be
solid and, most importantly perhaps for the future of demand, gem-set is
expanding very strongly, albeit from a still relatively low base.”
31 March 2015 - Metals Focus Conference
Gold Focus 2015 Launch in Toronto Canada -
Presentation by Philip Klapwijk of Precious Metals Insights Limited
Hong Kong and Chief Consultant to Metals Focus.
Review of 2014 - Headwinds for Gold: Rates, Equities and
Currencies - Key physical gold markets: China and India - Key Supply
& Demand Factors - Market & Price Outlook for 2015.
Presentation slides by Philip Klapwijk can be viewed in this link.
Precious Metals Insights Limited PMI gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets consultants, advisers and analysts Hong Kong. Supply & demand analysis, production, consumption and recycling consultancy. Managing director: Philip Klapwijk.